The Lebanese government made its most assertive move against Hezbollah in decades on March 2, 2026, ordering the group to disarm and banning armed operations from Lebanese territory, one day after Hezbollah rockets broke a 15-month ceasefire with Israel and triggered Israeli airstrikes that killed at least 31 people.
What broke the ceasefire
On the night of March 1, Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at Israel from Lebanese territory. It was the first cross-border attack by the group since November 27, 2024, when a US- and France-brokered cessation of hostilities had halted the previous round of fighting.
Hezbollah framed the attack as retaliation for two events: the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Israel’s ongoing military operations in Lebanon. The attack followed closely on the February 28 launch of a joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran , a regional escalation that fundamentally altered the context in which Lebanon’s ceasefire existed.
Israel responded with airstrikes. By the time Lebanon’s cabinet convened an emergency session on March 2, at least 31 people had been killed and 149 wounded in Lebanese territory.
Lebanese government responds
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam convened an emergency cabinet meeting on March 2 and condemned Hezbollah’s rocket fire as “irresponsible.” The government issued a formal decree prohibiting Hezbollah from storing weapons, deploying fighters, and conducting offensive military operations from Lebanese territory. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were instructed to implement the disarmament plan “using all necessary means.” Lebanon’s Justice Minister ordered the arrest of those responsible for the rocket launches.
The decree represents the most explicit state action against Hezbollah’s military wing in decades. Lebanon’s constitution and the postwar Taif Agreement technically grant the state a monopoly on the use of force. In practice, Hezbollah has operated as a military organization largely parallel to, and often more powerful than, the Lebanese Armed Forces.
UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert called for restraint from all parties, warning against “gambling the country’s stability.”
Where the disarmament plan stands
The Lebanese Armed Forces announced on January 8, 2026, that Phase One of their disarmament plan was complete, covering territory south of the Litani River, the zone specified under UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006), which ended the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war and called for Hezbollah’s disarmament.
Phase Two, covering the region between the Litani and Awali rivers, was presented to the Lebanese government on February 16. Military officials estimated it would take between four and eight months to complete.
UN Security Council Resolution 2790, passed in August 2025, extended the mandate of UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, through December 31, 2026, and called for a full Israeli withdrawal from remaining occupied positions within one year.
Why Hezbollah says no
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem stated clearly that the group has no intention of disarming while Israeli forces remain on Lebanese soil and Israeli strikes continue. Hezbollah officials have repeatedly conditioned disarmament north of the Litani River on Israel first withdrawing completely from occupied Lebanese territory.
This gives Hezbollah a durable rationale for refusing, Israeli withdrawal is incomplete, contested, and subject to no fixed deadline. As long as that condition remains unmet, Hezbollah can claim the decree applies to a situation that does not yet exist.
The enforcement problem
Lebanon’s decree is historically significant as a political statement. Its enforceability is a separate question.
The Lebanese Armed Forces are significantly outgunned by Hezbollah, which has tens of thousands of trained fighters, a substantial arsenal of rockets and missiles, and deep institutional roots in Shia communities across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. A military confrontation between the LAF and Hezbollah is not a realistic near-term scenario.
Analysts watching the situation have identified three plausible trajectories: outright Hezbollah defiance, risking a direct confrontation with the state; superficial compliance combined with relocation of assets to Syria; or a negotiated arrangement that gives Hezbollah limited continued capacity under nominal tighter oversight. None of these outcomes constitutes actual disarmament. The decree signals political will. Whether it changes facts on the ground depends on factors the Lebanese government does not fully control.
International stakes
Israel has responded militarily rather than through diplomatic channels. Israeli officials have not publicly acknowledged the Lebanese decree as a satisfactory response to the March 1 attack.
Iran’s calculus matters significantly. Tehran has historically resupplied Hezbollah even during periods of nominal restraint. The broader US-Israeli campaign against Iran changes the regional dynamic in ways that are still unfolding, whether Iran increases support to Hezbollah as a lever in its conflict with the United States and Israel, or pulls back to preserve Hezbollah for a later stage, remains unclear.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to receive the Secretary-General’s report on Resolution 1701 implementation on March 10. That briefing will be an early indicator of how the international community formally frames the current breakdown.
What comes next
The Lebanese government has gone on record with an explicit demand for Hezbollah disarmament. That demand’s credibility will be tested quickly. Whether Hezbollah launches further attacks, and how the Lebanese state responds if it does, will determine whether March 2, 2026 was a turning point or a political gesture made under pressure.
The conditions that produced this moment, a shattered ceasefire, a regional war over Iran, and a Lebanese government under intense international pressure to assert sovereignty, are not going to resolve quietly. Lebanon has reached an inflection point. What the next phase looks like depends on choices that Beirut does not fully control.
Sources
- Security Council Report, “Lebanon: March 2026 Monthly Forecast,” March 2026. securitycouncilreport.org
- Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “Hezbollah leader vows to fight until the end in renewed war with Israel,” March 5, 2026. fdd.org
- American Task Force on Lebanon, “Lebanon at an Inflection Point: Priorities and Recommendations.” atfl.org
- Al Jazeera, “Lebanon bans Hezbollah’s military activities after rocket attack on Israel,” March 2, 2026
- New York Times, Lebanon at ‘Tipping Point’ as It Seeks to Disarm Hezbollah, March 6, 2026.
