Economic sanctions succeed roughly one in three times. The mechanism is a four-link chain, and the history of sanctions is mostly the history of those links breaking.
Evergreen Geopolitics & ConflictIran’s drone strikes on Fujairah and Dubai Airport did not just damage infrastructure. They dismantled the assumption that oil could bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Geopolitics & Conflict News & AnalysisMore than 1,000 Kenyans were lured to fight for Russia in Ukraine with promises of civilian jobs. A Kenyan intelligence report, diplomatic talks in Moscow, and a growing death toll expose a trafficking pipeline spanning 36 African countries.
Geopolitics & Conflict News & AnalysisDrug cartels do not simply bribe officials. They systematically dismantle institutions, replace state authority with their own, and embed themselves in the economy until removal means collapse. The playbook is documented, repeatable, and usually recognized only after it has worked.
Evergreen Geopolitics & ConflictThe US-Israeli war on Iran follows a recognizable pattern: create unbearable conditions, wait for a reaction, use the reaction to justify the escalation you already planned. The problem is that this playbook was designed for a 40-kilometer strip, not a country with ballistic missiles and control of a fifth of the world’s oil.
Geopolitics & Conflict OpinionA Polymarket trader made $553,000 betting on Iran’s supreme leader 71 minutes before the strike. Kalshi froze $54 million invoking a death carveout nobody read. Congress is catching up.
Geopolitics & Conflict News & AnalysisUkraine spent three years learning to kill Iranian Shaheds. The US dismissed its offer to help. Now, with American soldiers dying in the Gulf, Washington is scrambling for the expertise it turned down.
Geopolitics & Conflict News & AnalysisProtesters broke into the Communist Party headquarters in Morón, burning furniture and Castro-era symbols in the street. The attack marks the most significant destruction of party infrastructure since Cuba’s current crisis began.
Geopolitics & Conflict News & AnalysisWhen the adversary has committed to regime destruction, calibrated restraint is not strategy. It is cognitive bias dressed as wisdom, and institutional design makes it nearly impossible to choose otherwise.
Geopolitics & Conflict OpinionTwo sides of the Iran war believe the conflict will trigger divine intervention. They disagree on whose God wins. History suggests the real danger begins when the prophecy fails.
Geopolitics & Conflict OpinionHamas publicly urged Iran to stop striking Gulf states. The statement, forced by Qatar’s threat to cut funding, exposes the structural limits of ideological alliances when survival depends on the countries your patron is bombing.
Geopolitics & Conflict News & AnalysisA previously unknown Shia militant group has claimed four attacks on Jewish institutions across Belgium, the Netherlands, and Greece in five days. The logo, the Telegram channels, and the operational pattern all point toward Iran.
Geopolitics & Conflict News & Analysis
